Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets 10.06.2023
Despite stealing homecourt in game 2, Miami failed to make the most of the opportunity to seize control of this series when they welcomed the Nuggets to the South Coast for game 3. They were outclassed and outgunned by the visitors who went on to win 109-94 behind record-setting games from their leading stars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray who both posted 30-point triple-doubles – the first time in regular season or playoff that a pair of teammates did that in the same game. Pressure is now on Miami to try and win this game 4 lest they face the prospect of a quick series if the Nuggets take a 3-1 lead back to the high altitude Colorado. Jimmy Butler is yet to have one of his signature games with the Nuggets’ defence totally keyed in on him. They will definitely need it here to keep this series alive
With Mike Malone openly criticizing their effort in the game 2 loss, the Nuggets responded in kind and put up one of their best performances on both ends of the floor and are now just two games away from their first-ever NBA title if they can get the job done. Once again they were led by their dynamic duo of Jokic and Murray with Jokic posting a 32-21-10 statline – the first ever 30-20 triple-double in the finals. They did well to clean up the defensive mistakes they had in game 2 and their coverages this time were on point and on time. They are clearly the more talented team here and when they add effort to that talent, they are hard to beat.
Game 4 is almost a do-or-die game for Miami. They really cannot afford to go back to Denver trailing 3-1. We expect this to be a close game that could go down to the wire or possibly even go to overtime. We fancy them to either win or not lose by more than 7 points here. As such we are backing them with a +7.5 handicap
Tip: Handicap +7.5 Miami Win
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Head-to-Head stats Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets
Denver leads this series is tied at 2-1
Latest results Miami Heat
- 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
- Lost 109-94 to Denver in game 4
Latest results Denver Nuggets
- 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
- Beat Miami 109-94 in game 3
Final Regular Season Standings and Path to NBA Finals
Miami Heat: rank 8th (East) – 82 matches – 44 wins – 38 losses – 0.537%
1st Round: Defeated Milwaukee Bucks 4-1
2nd Round: Defeated New York Knicks 4-2
Conference Finals: Edged Boston Celtics 4-3
Denver Nuggets: rank 1st (West) – 82 matches – 53 wins – 29 losses – 0.646%
1st Round: Defeated Minnesota Timberwolves 4-1
2nd Round: Defeated Phoenix Suns 4-2
Conference Finals: Swept the LA Lakers 4-0
Possible starting Lineup Miami Heat
Miami Heat: Vincent, Strus, Adebayo, Butler, Love
Out: Oladipo (Knee injury)
Coach: Eric Spoelstra
Possible Starting Lineup Denver Nuggets
Denver: Murray, Caldwell-Pope, Jokic, Gordon, Porter
Out: Gillespie (Leg injury)
Coach: Michael Malone
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Our tip and odds in detail
According to the statistics above and the odds of the bookmakers, we suggest the following:
Bet on Handicap +7.5 Miami Heat Win
Melbet offers competitive odds for the bet “Handicap +7.5 Miami Heat Win”
The odd of 1.53 means that the bookmakers are calculating with a likelihood of approx. 65% chance that Miami Heat will win the game outright or not lose by more than 7 points
Odds comparison for Handicap +7.5 Miami Heat Win
Melbet – odd 1.53
1xBet – odd 1.52
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