Lubeck vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

A 3rd place finish in Germany’s Regionalliga Nord was a decent performance for FC Phönix Lübeck who had just earned promotion to the division in 2020. They have split a win and a draw in their opening two matches to start this season though and are right in the middle of the park. The Eagles have a rich footballing history in Lubeck and they certainly harbor ambitions of getting back to the top divisions where they played for decades. That said, they face a herculean task this weekend as they kick off their DFB Pokal campaign at their Stadion Lohmühle where they will host Bundesliga side Borussia Dortmund. Bookies have them as a massive underdog here but they will nevertheless fancy their chances of upsetting the big boys

Despite getting to the final of the Champions League where they narrowly lost to Real Madrid, a sub-par league performance saw Dortmund part ways with Edin Terzic. Die Schwarzgelben had choked on the final day of the 2023/24 Bundesliga title race to lose it to Bayern Munich and there were expectations that they could mount another serious challenge. That however failed to materialize and a 5th place finish last season left a bitter taste in the mouths of the bosses and supporters alike. Terzic was replaced by former BVB midfielder Nuri Sahin whose immediate task is rebuilding the squad. They have blown hot and cold in pre-season but this should be a fairly straightforward win against a lower-division outfit

Goals have been a key feature in games involving both of these teams. Lubeck’s matches in particular have been box-office with 7 of their last 10 seeing the ball get to the back of the net at least 4 times. Dortmund despite losing some key players this off-season, still have enough quality to handle the hosts. We expect an attacking spectacle here and for our opening Lubeck vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, we are picking this clash to have at least 4 goals scored

Check out our DFB Pokal predictions for the opening round of matches in the German Cup this weekend

Main Tip: Over 3.5 Goals

Our Lubeck vs Borussia Dortmund predictions

According to the statistics and the odds of the bookmakers, we suggest the following tips:

Prediction 1: Over 3.5 Goals

Here are 3 reasons why we are backing this match to have at least 4 total goals scored:

• 4 of Lubeck’s last 6 matches have witnessed at least 4 goals scored
• For Dortmund, this has occurred in 3 of their last 4 matches
• At home, 7 of Lubeck’s last 10 competitive matches have had at least 4 goals scored

Odds for this bet

1Win offers competitive odds for the bet “Over 3.5 Goals”

The odd of 1.45 means that the bookmakers are calculating with a likelihood of approx. 69% chance that this match will have at least 4 total goals scored

Odds comparison for Over 3.5 Goals

1Win – odd 1.45
1xBet – odd 1.45

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Prediction 2: Most Goals 2nd Half

3 reasons why we are backing this match to have more goals in the 2nd period:

• 2 of Lubeck’s last 3 matches have had more goals in the 2nd half
• Lubeck will set themselves up to keep things as tight as possible to start the match so the opening half will be relatively closer than the 2nd
• Dortmund have too much depth on their squad. They’ll come in and make their mark in the 2nd period

Odds for this bet

Paripesa offers competitive odds for “Most Goals 2nd Half”

The odd of 1.79 means that the bookmakers are calculating with a likelihood of approx. 56% that this game will have more goals being scored in the 2nd half than the 1st

Odds comparisons Most Goals 2nd Half

Paripesa – odd 1.79
Betwinner – odd 1.73

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Prediction 3: Dortmund Over 6.5 Corners

Here’s why we feel there is value in picking Dortmund to take at least 7 corners in this match

• Dortmund are expected to dominate this match from start to finish
• Against decent side they have averaged around 5 corners in their recent 5 matches. This is expected to go up here
• Lubeck’s defence has been sluggish to start the season. As a result, Dortmund will find a lot of openings especially through the flanks which could see them win lots of corners

Statistics for Lubeck vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

Team News Lubeck

• Lubeck have opted to strengthen their attack by bringing in Jorik Wulff (Greifwaler) and Bremer SV forward H. Bukusu on free transfers
• They have also picked up Hansa Rostock II midfielder J. Albrecht to boost their engine room
• They have had a few departures as well on free transfers: keeper P. Klewin (Hansa Rostock), defender Mattis Paule (BFC Preussen) and midfielder Tattertshofer who has signed with Spanish lower division outfit Atletico Baleares

Team News Borussia Dortmund

• Dortmund has had some activity in the summer transfer window. Veteran Gio Reyna is back in the fold following his loan to Nottingham Forest. Alongside the newly acquired Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder Pascal Gross, they will add experience to BVB’s midfield
• BVB have also seen some of their big names departing including  Jadon Sancho, Mats Hummels, Marco Reus, and most recently Niclas Fullkrug who has joined EPL side West Ham
• Serhou Guirassy has been ruled out until mid-September, so the visitors are expected to turn to Ivory Coast’s AFCON hero Sebastien Haller to replace Niclas Fullkrug upfront
•  With Jadon Sancho back to Man United after his loan spell, compatriot Jamie Bynoe-Gittens seems to be making the most of the opportunity. He has started the last three matches and was on the score sheet in the 3-2 win over J-League side Osaka on 24th July
• Waldemar Anton and Yan Couto have had limited playing time since they were signed from Stuttgart and Manchester City respectively. They could get an extended run off the bench here

H2H statistics

This is the first meeting between these teams

Latest results Lubeck

• 2 wins, a draw and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
• 11 goals scored in these last 5 matches. Average of 2.20 goals per match
• Beat Vfl Oldenburg 3-1 in their last match

Latest results Borussia Dortmund

• 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss in their last 5 matches
• 8 goals scored in these last 5 matches. Average 1.60 goals per match
• Beat Aston Villa 2-0 in their last match

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