Italy vs Ecuador prediction

European Champions Italy will be looking to get back in shape as they prepare to defend their title in the summer with a series of friendlies. This one against Ecuador will be a real test for them as the South Americans are playing very well at the moment and will certainly be a hard nut to crack. The Azzurri qualified for the Euros with a 0-0 draw against Ukraine last time out at the BayArena in Leverkusen. All they needed to top Group C was a draw and they got just that.

Ecuador meantime have started their 2026 World Cup Qualifier with a 5-match unbeaten streak that has seen them move above heavyweights Brazil in the standings. With the qualifiers on an extended break at the moment, the Ecuadorians will be keen to use these friendlies to keep themselves engaged as they continue their terrific start to the competition.

This is going to be a closely contested game, even though it’s a friendly. It’s not going to be a walk in the park for Italy. But they do have enough quality within their rank and file to get the job done here. We are therefore backing them to come out with a victory as our opening Italy vs Ecuador prediction.

As we get to the International break we have plenty of friendly predictions covering all the top matches

Main tip: Italy Win

Our Italy vs Ecuador predictions

According to the statistics and the odds of the bookmakers, we suggest the following tips:

Prediction 1: Italy Win

Italy seem to have turned the corner after some mishaps earlier in the qualifiers. They have won 3 of their last 5 matches and have already clinched their place at the Euros where they will set out to defend their title.

They haven’t lost to Ecuador in both of their H2H meetings

We expect a close encounter here with both teams coming into this game off good runs. We however fancy Italy to edge it here based on the quality of their squad and we are picking them to win this match with great odds for this market offered at 1Win

Odds for this bet

1Win offers competitive odds for the bet “Italy Win”

The odd of 1.93 means that the bookmakers are calculating with a likelihood of approx. 52% chance that Italy will emerge victorious in this match

Odds comparison for Italy Win

1Win – odd 1.93
1xBet – odd 1.90

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Prediction 2: 1st Goal Italy

Italy have been quick off the blocks in their recent encounters. They have scored the opening goal in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

We expect them to kick off this game with great intensity as they try to impose their will early. Ecuador like to sit back and absorb pressure and try to hit on the counters

We are therefore backing Italy to score the opening goal of this match with pretty good odds for this option offered at Paripesa

Odds for this bet

Paripesa offers competitive odds for “1st Goal Italy”

The odd of 1.64 means that the bookmakers are calculating with a likelihood of approx. 61% chance that Italy will score the opening goal of this match

Odds comparisons 1st Goal Italy

Paripesa – odd 1.64
Bet365 – odd 1.60

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Prediction 3: 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals

Both of these teams play relatively solid defence and that is likely to be the case in this game.

Eduador’s last 5 straight matches have had no more than a goal in the opening half.

Their two H2H also went the same way.

We expect a close opening half with both teams trying to figure each other. As a result, we are backing this game to have no more than a goal scored in the first half as our final Italy vs Ecuador prediction for this match.

Statistics for Italy vs Ecuador Prediction

H2H statistics

There have been 2 meetings between these teams:

• Italy have won one and the other game ended in a draw
• These matches averaged just 1.50 goals a match
• The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw

Latest results Italy

• 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
• 12 goals scored in these last 5 matches. Average of 2.40 goals per match
• Drew 0-0 with Ukraine in their last match

Latest results Ecuador

• 3 wins, and 2 draws in their last 5 matches
• 5 goals scored in these last 5 matches. Average 1.00 goals per match
• Edged Chile 1-0 at home in their last match

Possible squad Italy & Ecuador

Line up	Italy	Ecuador
Goalkeeper	Donnarumma	Galindez
Defense	Darmian, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco	Preciado, Torres, Hincapie, Estupinan
Midfield	Barella, Locatelli, Bonaventura	Caicedo, Gruezo, Franco
Forward	Berardi, Raspadori, Kean	Plata, Valencia, Estrada
Missing	Meret, Cambiaso, Cristante, Calabria, Di Lorenzo, Locatelli, Toloi	None
Coach	Luciano Spalletti	Félix Sánchez

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