Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction

The pick of the post-international break Premier League matches takes place in North London as Tottenham welcome their cross-town rivals Arsenal to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this Sunday. It’s been a rather slow start to the campaign for Ange Postecoglou’s men (W1, D1, L1), and this fixture, tough as it has been for them in recent years allows them to breathe a new lease of life into their campaign.

Arsenal have dominated this fixture but their ever-growing list of injury and suspension lists means they could find the going tough here and this will be their first real test of the season. Coach Mikel Arteta, who agreed a new three-year contract in the build-up to this clash, could be without as many as six of his first-team squad – most notably Declan Rice, who was sent off against Brighton two weeks ago, and captain Martin Ødegaard, who sustained an ankle injury while on international duty with Norway.

Despite their injury woes, the Gunners still have enough quality within their rank and file to remain competitive here. They have been substantial on the road where they’re unbeaten in away league action since the start of 2024 (W9, D1). This has been one of their favorite hunting grounds winning the last two season fixtures here. We are backing them on the double chance as our main Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction for this match,

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Main Tip: DC Arsenal/Draw

Our Tottenham vs Arsenal predictions

According to the statistics and the odds of the bookmakers, we suggest the following tips:

Prediction 1: Double Chance – Arsenal/Draw

Here are 3 reasons why we are backing Arsenal to win or draw this match:

• Arsenal are unbeaten in the last 10 away league games (9W, 1D)
• The Gunners are in a good run of form. Just 1 loss in their last 19 matches across all competitions
• Spurs have just 1 win in their last 5 matches overall

Odds for this bet

1Win offers competitive odds for the bet “Double Chance – Arsenal/Draw”

The odd of 1.40 means that the bookmakers are calculating with a likelihood of approx. 71% chance that Arsenal will win or draw this match

Odds comparison for Double Chance – Arsenal/Draw

1Win – odd 1.40
Bet365 – odd 1.36

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Prediction 2: Over 2.5 Goals

3 reasons why we are backing this match to have at least 3 total goals scored:

• 6 of the last 7 Spurs matches have had at least 3 goals scored
• The H2H average in the last 10 matches is 3.10 goals a match
• Both teams have been prolific in front of goal. Arsenal have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 matches. Spurs have at least a goal in their last 10 matches

Odds for this bet

Paripesa offers competitive odds for “Over 2.5 Goals”

The odd of 1.62 means that the bookmakers are calculating with a likelihood of approx. 62% that this match will have at least 3 total goals scored

Odds comparisons Over 2.5 Goals

Paripesa – odd 1.62
10Bet – odd 1.57

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Prediction 3: Over 3.5 Bookings

Here’s why we feel there is value in picking this match to have at least 4 bookings:

• There is no love lost between these two London rivals. We expect a tense match with lots of cynical challenges
• Both teams had explosive games the last time they played; Newcastle v Tottenham ended up with 8 bookings while Arsenal v Brighton also had 8 bookings including a red card for Declan Rice
• 5 of the last 6 H2H meetings had at least 4 bookings dished out

Statistics for Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction

Team News Tottenham

• Returning players: Dominic Solanke has sat out Spurs’ last two matches with the ankle injury he picked up in the opening game of the season but there is a chance he could be making his return to action here. Defender Micky van den Ven could also be in line to feature in this derby
• Injury List: Prior to the loss to Newcastle, Postecoglou revealed that Richarlison had sustained an injury in training, which will rule the Brazilian out for a few weeks.
• Major Doubt:  Yves Bissouma was withdrawn in Mali’s win over Eswatini after suffering a heavy challenge, and the Lilywhites are anxiously awaiting updates on his condition.

Team News Arsenal

• New Deal for Manager: Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta has ended all speculation about his future by signing a new two-year contract at the Emirates to keep him on the books until 2027.
• Injury Woes: The Gunners had a miserable international break as captain Odegaard and defender Riccardo Calafiori sustained ankle and calf injuries respectively. They join Mikel Merino, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Gabriel Jesus and Kieran Tierney on the absentee list for Sunday’s derby.
• Filling in: Jorginho should almost certainly return to the fold with Odegaard out; Arteta has been incredibly reluctant to use Oleksandr Zinchenko as an out-and-out midfielder.
• Suspension: Declan Rice’s red card against Brighton means he is out of action for this derby. Thomas Partey who has been surprisingly injury-free is expected to get the nod to start in his place.

H2H statistics

Assessing the last 10 meetings between these teams:

• Arsenal has 6 wins while Tottenham has 4 wins
• These encounters featured an average of 3.10 goals per match
• The Gunners won the last meeting 3-2 at this venue

Latest results Tottenham

• 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
• 9 goals scored in these last 5 matches. Average of 1.80 goals per match
• Lost 2-1 away at Newcastle in their last match

Latest results Arsenal

• 4 Wins and a draw in their last 5 games
• 11 goals scored in these last 5 matches. Average 2.20 goals per match
• Drew 1-1 at home to Brighton in their last match

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